Episode 900: The Salvy Won't Save You Edition
Date June 8, 2016 Summary Ben and Sam banter about the brawl between the Orioles and Royals, then answer listener emails about Clayton Kershaw, Jon Lester, beating the shift, and how bad they would be at calling balls and strikes. Topics * Clayton Kershaw's intimidating dominance * Defining how you 'beat the shift' * Likelihood of continuing a losing streak * Stealing off Jon Lester * Normal people baserunning speed * Normal people calling balls and strikes Intro Jane's Addiction, "Been Caught Stealing" Outro Grateful Dead, "Beat it on Down the Line" Banter * Salvador Perez's decision to not try and prevent a brawl between the Orioles and Royals. * Breaking an unwritten rule against your own team Email Questions * Joseph: "On my way to work this morning I was listening to the episode in which you discussed Clayton Kershaw's dominance while pitching in the zone and immediately rushed to the office, ignored my growing list of emails, and read Sam's article. After the 4,201 gifs finished loading I came away with one takeaway: is it possible that Kershaw's reputation for dominance and good stuff precedes his actual dominance and good stuff on occasion? I'm not questioning his greatness as he is no doubt one of the best pitchers of our generation, but in a sport that requires so much confidence to succeed at the highest level and requires just as strong a mental approach as a physical approach at the plate, could some batters set into the box already 10 or 15% less likely to succeed because they know how great he is? Thus the pitches in the zone shock them just as much as us as they expected a nasty slider on the black or one of his less often thrown curveballs in the dirt. I would compare that theory to the Tiger Woods red shirt theory. In his prime the red shirt on Sunday was said to intimidate his opponents as it signified his dominance and expectations to win. As a result other opponents would sometime perform less successfully then they would against other golfers and in other situations. This is obviously impossible to quantify and no athlete would ever admit to being intimidated, but is it an interesting theory?" * Andrew: "There is constant discussion about whether Bryce Harper or Mike Trout is the best player in the game today. Why is Clayton Kershaw never included in this conversation? He is considered to be the best pitcher in the game today and most people consider him one of the greatest of all time yet I never hear him being in the conversation. Does the fact that he is a pitcher, only playing every five days, detract from his consideration for this title?" * Tom: "As a Cardinals fan who lives in St. Louis, I watch nearly every game on the local TV broadcast. Seemingly every time Matt Adams gets a hit the local play by play guy will say, "Adams beats the shift". He does this no matter where Adams hits it as long as it goes for a hit. If I remember it correctly he has also said the phrase after several Adams home runs but I believe this is said ironically. If it's a hit he has defied that goal but I feel as if there needs to be a stricter definition of beating the shift. In my mind one beats the shift when he blasts it through the shifted fielders. A basketball announcer would not say 'LeBron beats the double team' when he passes to a teammate. However after making this comment to my mother, who is also annoyed with the proliferation of the phrase, she insists that one beats the shift when one defies expectations and goes the other way and gets a hit on a ball that would normally be fielded for an out by unshifting defense. Whose use of the phrase should become the nomenclature in our shift happy world? Mine, my mom's, or our play by play guys'?" * Phillip: "More Jon Lester banter please. No one is stealing off of him. What gives, gentlemen, what gives? I think he has developed an especially menacing glare when he checks first base." * Olaf: "After hearing you two discuss the fact that Sam is maybe a half step slower than the two elder Molina brothers, and Sam's statement that a random guy like Trevor Plouffe would be one of the fastest runners most non-professional athletes have ever met, I've started to notice how close a lot of plays at second base are even on balls hit to the fence. That makes me wonder, assuming the outfielder does not misplay the ball and it doesn't take a crazy bounce, where would I or the two of you need to hit a ball in a MLB stadium to end up with a double? Let's say the outfielders in this hypothetical have league average range, arms, release times, etc. Are there any stadiums in which you think you wouldn't be able to hit a double anywhere in the park? I am a fit, reasonably athletic 34 year old man and I'm not certain that I could hit a ball to any part of the park in Baltimore or Cincinnati and end up safely at second base." * Daniel: "Calling balls and strikes is pretty hard. Not hitting hard but I think much harder than people give it credit and generally speaking umpires are pretty good at it. If you two had to call balls and strikes tonight at a MLB game, how good do you think you would be? You have all day to prepare but no more." Play Index * Sam uses the Play Index to find out the likelihood of a team to continue a losing streak. This is the opposite of the Play Index segment in Episode 895. * Teams that are on a losing streak are more likely to lose the longer the streak continues. * Teams that have lost 12 or more games in a row have a 37% chance to win their next game. Notes * Sam decides that to beat the shift means to hit a ball past/through the shifted fielders. Ultimately they decide that saying 'through the shift' or 'past the shift' is a better term. * Jon Lester has only allowed 9 stolen base attempts this season (5 successful stolen bases). * The best umpires are around 90% correct according to PITCHf/x strike zones. * Ben and Sam discuss the umpires in the Pacific Association and the ways in which they behaved differently compared to MLB umpires. Links * Episode 900: The Salvy Won't Save You Edition Category:Episodes Category:Email Episodes